Fernando Mendoza Prospect Profile
Background
Fernando Mendoza, born in Miami, Florida, is a grandson of Cuban immigrants. Trying to find much about his high school career does not bring up much, and it shows in where his recruiting rankings ended up. His On3 Industry composite ranking was a three-star QB with only 247 and ESPN giving him a positional ranking of 145th and 72nd, respectively. It is evident that Mendoza was quite a good student, though, as the schools that offered him originally were Lehigh, Penn, and the school he initially committed to, Yale. Continuing in the vein of excellent schools, he switched his commitment to join Justin Wilcox and the Cal Golden Bears in February of his Senior year. He redshirted his first season on campus, but won the starting QB job halfway into his second year, and continued to hold it his third year on campus. After the end of the 2024 season, Mendoza entered the transfer portal and decided to play for Curt Cignetti and his staff at Indiana. It turned out to be an incredible decision, as he won the Heisman Trophy and the National Championship in his one year in Bloomington.
Physical Attributes
Mendoza has a near ideal size at QB, being 6'5" tall and 225 lbs. He has a very quick first step, which helps him evade defenders in the pocket, and enough real speed to be a threat on the run against NFL defenses. He has quite the arm, too. His release is lightning quick, and with it, he is able to whip his arm and generate real power behind each throw. He did not have too many opportunities to throw the ball over 50 air yards, but each time he did, it did not look like it took all the effort he could muster to do it; there is still some meat on the bone there.
Data and Tape Analysis
If you are unfamiliar with my QB radar charts, you can find more information here
Mendoza's radar chart might look surprising to some. The unquestioned first overall pick, Heisman winner, and National Champion QB only had one of the eight stats shown above the 90th percentile and only one other above the 80th for college QBs with at least 100 dropbacks last year. Though he did have four others that were above the 70th percentile.
The tape does not disagree either. The stuff that I won't hold against him is his command of the offense in front of him. It did not require him to make a ton of big throws or to go deep often. The offense was so well structured that most dropbacks, Mendoza found an easy first read somewhere between 7 and 12 yards downfield. That sounds super easy until you see other QBs try and do that and remain as consistently accurate and mistake free as Mendoza.
That brings me to the stat I am not sure I agree with: his accuracy. Mendoza rarely ever put the ball in harm's way, and that is not for a dearth of contested throws. In fact, his receivers often played more like power forwards than receivers, given the number of contested catches they attempted while boxing out the defensive back. The connection between Fernando and his receivers on these plays was near telepathic. I am working on a piece that puts to the test the idea that QBs who throw with anticipation are better, and help their teams win, but Fernando really makes me question that. Nearly every ball in these contested situations was only in a place his receiver could make a play, not the DB. Back shoulder, high and in, right on the facemask, low and away, it did not matter, wherever that ball needed to go, it went.
Like said above, Mendoza is a running threat, and one of the things I loved the most was not even necessarily his scrambling (we will come back to that) but his play fakes. He is a really good ball handler, and it was tough to tell from the viewers point of view what exactly he was going to do on a read. Whether handing the ball off, getting the ball out with his lightning quick throwing motion on an RPO, or running himself, he always sold the fake. Not a little head motion either, he would be five yards downfield before easing up on a read option. And his handling of the option game was superb, making the correct decision every time.
His decision making around what throws to make was excellent. He would work through his reads when he needed to, and I can count on my hands the number of times he made an objectively wrong choice. He would occasionally move through progressions too quickly, but that is not the worst thing in the world for a 22 year old.
Now, there is one thing about Mendoza that scares me away from giving him a truly elite rating, and that is his pocket presence. The dude has stones and is willing to take hits in order to get the ball out, with pressure barely seeming to phase him. That is a big reason why PFF had him ranked as their 5th best QB under pressure last year. Ok, what is scary about that? The other side of that coin.
Over 25% of Mendoza's pressures are on him according to PFFs allowed pressure metric. The only QBs in the NFL above that mark are Shadeur Sanders, Jaxson Dart, Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen. The last two are exceptional at extending plays and navigating collapsing pockets before ultimately getting the ball out. Mendoza is not. His pocket navigation looks like guesswork most of the time, and it doesn't seem like he has any real idea where the pressure is coming from or what his movement might put him into. When opportunities to scramble present themselves, he might just decide to step into the path of a 300lb DT instead. This was my major concern with Mendoza coming into this year, where Mendoza was in the bottom 10th percentile of pressure to sack rate, and this year, while better at around the 50th percentile, I think his incredible offensive line covered up his sins.
Grade and Outlook
There is very little doubt in my mind that Fernando Mendoza is deserving of being the number one overall pick. The highs on the tape of the last two years were insane (if you still haven't watched his first half against Auburn from 2024, go do it now), and the lows began to smooth out over time. He has everything he needs to be a very good, if not elite, NFL QB. His mental strength and processing abilities will be his calling card if he makes it, and if he does not, it is because the Raiders' offensive line and his pocket presence create a marriage made in hell.
Grade: 6.9 (Top 5 pick)
