Draft Grades
Welcome back to another post about this year’s draft. I have a lot of thoughts on the strategy that teams used during the draft, and what it tells me about their vision for the future.
If you like my work, please subscribe and keep an eye out for some of my upcoming pieces. I'm thinking of writing a piece on the changing landscape for College QBs and creating a Dynasty Draft big board as just a few of the more pertinent ideas.
Duncan Drafts is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.
Arizona Cardinals:
Grade: A-
Favorite pick: Jordan Burch, EDGE, Oregon
The Cardinals fielded a middle-of-the-pack defense last year, but where they struggled the most was getting off the field on 3rd downs. They had a 43.8% defensive third-down rate, 28th in the league. It’s easy to see why, they were only middling at getting to the QB, and their secondary was not of much help either, allowing bottom-third yards per pass and completion percentage. The first three picks of the draft were designed to shore those struggles up quickly. Walter Nolen is a menacing interior presence, Jordan Burch is a big edge who, if he can unlock his athletic potential, will be great, and Will Johnson has some of the best CB tape in the draft if he can remain healthy.
Atlanta Falcons:
Grade: D
Favorite pick: Xavier Watts, S, Notre Dame
Where to begin with this one? I like every single player they drafted, and if there is one position group that has seemed to be cursed in the NFL, it is the Atlanta Falcons’ EDGEs. I understand wanting to take two shots at solving that problem, but trading a future 1st, their current 2nd, and more to get back up to 26th to get James Pearce is insane. The Falcons just made the bet that their pick next year will be worse than drafting 26th this year. A team that has not made the playoffs in 7 years. Bold move, Cotton, let’s see if it pays off.
Baltimore Ravens:
Grade: B+
Favorite pick: Carson Vinson, OT, Alabama A&M
Life is pretty simple when you have one of the best run franchises of the past 25 years. Take the best player available, and somehow they fit your team's needs at the same time. Plus, the secret to drafting is clear: have more picks. The more tickets you have for the raffle, the higher your chances are of winning. 5 picks in the 6th round alone will do that, and if the Ravens history shows anything, 2 or 3 of those players will earn second contracts and be contributing members of the team (my bets are on Bilhal Kone, and Aeneas Peebles being the two).
Buffalo Bills:
Grade: B
Favorite pick: Chase Lundt, OT, UCONN
Everyone was asking for the Bills to get a bona-fide WR1 for Josh Allen in this draft. Although with the dearth of options in that department, the Bills decided to forgo that and help speed up what was a slow and undersized defense last year. I think it’s impossible to be Billy Beane and watch your team consistently unable to beat the Chiefs on pure offensive talent, then see the two times Patrick Mahomes lost a Super Bowl being the result of nine total sacks and four interceptions.
Carolina Panthers:
Grade: A
Favorite pick: Tet McMillan, WR, Arizona
The end of last season showed the Bryce Young that was #1 overall, and solidified the plan of continuing with him next year. What made that run all the more impressive was that Bryce did not have the best options to throw the ball to, but Tet McMillan will change that. He is precisely the big-bodied X receiver that so many teams desire. Add to that addressing their biggest area of need on the defensive front with two EDGEs who I had rated much more highly than they were picked, and you’ve hit this out of the park.
Chicago Bears:
Grade: C-
Favorite pick: Zah Frazier, CB, UTSA
This might be the most interesting draft in what it tells us about how Ben Johnson wants this team to look. The first two picks in this draft, Colston Loveland and Luther Burden, are pretty confusing together. I do not think anyone looked at the Bears roster and felt they needed more pass-catching weapons, but they went and got two of the better ones in the draft anyway? I think Ben Johnson is going to switch up how this offense is run in Chicago, and some people who’s spots are assumed safe may be left in the cold.
Cincinnati Bengals:
Grade: C+
Favorite pick: Dylan Fairchild, OG, UgA
Cincy went pretty down the middle with this draft. No massive overdrafts, or any incredible value to be found one way or the other. It’s harsh to say, but this draft might come down to just how good Shemar Stewart ends up. He has all the tools and physical traits you could ever want in an EDGE, but can Al Golden and staff teach him how to play football?
Cleveland Browns:
Grade: A
Favorite pick: Shadeur Sanders, QB, Colorado
Leaving ALL OF IT out of this evaluation, the players the Browns drafted will be boons to this franchise for a long time to come. Mason Graham and Carson Schwesinger help shore up a surprisingly leaky defense from last year. Quinshon Judkins and Harold Fannin are two players who will help this team skew younger as it looks to rebuild away from older and costlier veterans. And you know what, drafting a top 50ish talent in the 5th round isn’t a bad idea.
Dallas Cowboys:
Grade: B+
Favorite pick: Donovan Ezeiruaku, EDGE, Boston College
After watching the first three rounds, I was reminded of just how good the Cowboys are at drafting. They might leave a lot else to be desired elsewhere, but they hit in the draft more consistently than most teams. However, after those dynamite first three picks, I’m not too pleased with their selections. Although how much more crucial early-round picks are skews their grade upward.
Denver Broncos:
Grade: C+
Favorite pick: Jahdae Barron, CB, Texas
At every pick in this draft, the Broncos took someone who I had a lower grade on than other available players in the same position (outside the punter pick). Not that I did not like those players, but I think the Broncos’ front office and Sean Payton have a particular idea of what they want their players to be. And like many Tinder profiles, Sean Payton is telling his receivers, swipe left if you’re under 6’2”.
Detroit Lions:
Grade: B
Favorite pick: Tate Ratledge, OG, UgA
This was a bit of a weird draft for the Lions, but that is turning into a bit of the norm for them. The days following the draft, you try to cross your eyes and imagine what they were thinking with some of their picks, but it’s been paying off in spades in recent years. Isaac TeSlaa is an intriguing flier in the third round, but if Tate Ratledge doesn’t become a Lions fan favorite over the next 10 years, I will be truly shocked. Fits Dan Campbell’s ethos perfectly and is one hell of a football player.
Green Bay Packers:
Grade: C
Favorite pick: Anthony Belton, OT, NC State
The Packers continue to love to draft physical specimens. Like almost every year, all of their draft picks fit that profile. I am unsure if Matthew Golden is the chosen WR1 they want him to be, though. He has traits and showed flashes he could be, but to me, he projects as a fantastic #2 WR. And in a room filled with #2 WR types, it will be interesting to see how that works out. Also, Savion Williams is one of my least favorite prospects in the draft, and imagining getting anything more than special-teams help from him would be surprising.
Houston Texans:
Grade: D-
Favorite pick: Jayden Higgins, WR, Iowa State
There is a saying about getting your QB help when you have one you believe in. So the Texans went and got CJ Stroud playmakers. I do not think CJ Stroud needed more playmakers, I think he needs help staying upright. Hopefully someone will be open in under 2 seconds every play; otherwise, this could get brutal pretty quickly.
Indianapolis Colts:
Grade: C-
Favorite pick: Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State
I cannot figure out this Colts draft. It is a little here, there, and everywhere. There does not seem to any throughline in the draft process other than their front office liked these players. I couldn't say how many other teams did, but they did. Gives the vibe of a cornered animal lashing out and hoping to escape.
Jacksonville Jaguars:
Grade: D+
Favorite pick: Travis Hunter, WR/CB, Colorado
Yet another baffling draft. The trade-up to grab Travis Hunter is hairbrained, but it shows just how much faith Jacksonville has in their ability to compete this year with Trevor Lawrence. I thought there were other needs, and this looked like something more of a two-year rebuild, but now, without a first-round pick next year, they need to make something happen this year. As much as I don't like that trade, Travis Hunter is still that guy.
Kansas City Chiefs:
Grade: B+
Favorite pick: Brashard Smith, RB, SMU
The Chiefs realized why they lost the Super Bowl. They could not handle either of Philadelphia’s lines, so they went and bolstered their own on both sides of the ball. Add to that two sneaky playmakers for Pat Mahomes (Jalen Royals and Brashard Smith), and you have one of the smarter drafts of this year, if not transformational.
Las Vegas Raiders:
Grade: A
Favorite pick: Charles Grant, OT, William & Mary
Las Vegas wants you to know that no matter how many games they win, playing them this year will not be a pleasant experience. The players they took exhibited a desire to be a more physical team, and one that takes pride in smashmouth football. Also, huge bonus points for drafting back-to-back FCS QBs in the 6th round who are both intriguing bets.
Los Angeles Chargers:
Grade: B
Favorite pick: Omarion Hampton, RB, UNC
It appears the Chargers are attempting to build my favorite kind of offense. One in which you have a power runner behind a mauling offensive line to set the tone. Combined with a couple of absolute speed demons on the outside catching passes from a QB that could throw the ball over a mountain to scare the living hell out of any safety daring enough to come down into the box and play the run.
Los Angeles Rams:
Grade: B+
Favorite pick: Jarquez Hunter, RB, Auburn
The players selected are not the biggest win for the Rams in this draft; that would be fleecing the Falcons for their first-round pick next year. Marvelous work, but I would have gone in some different directions for most of their selections, though.
Miami Dolphins:
Grade: B+
Favorite pick: Zeek Biggers, DT, Georgia Tech\
The era of Miami being a pure finesse team is over, and I am very much here for it. Mike McDaniel is one of the best offensive minds in the NFL, and I am interested to see what he does now that Jonah Savaiinaea and Ollie Gordon have been added to try to add some thunder to the offense. Add to that the three DTs the Dolphins took, and this will be a different team than the one we are used to watching.
Minnesota Vikings:
Grade: C
Favorite pick: Donovan Jackson, OG, Ohio State
It is difficult to have a good draft with only five picks, and only two in the top 100. However, I am a big fan of their first pick, Donovan Jackson, who you can read more about here.
New England Patriots:
Grade: A+
Favorite pick: Kyle Williams, WR, Washington State
Mike Vrabel’s checklist on day one looked like the following:
- Keep Drake Maye upright
- Find weapons to help Drake Maye
- Flesh out a thin defense
Check, check, and check. No other notes.
New Orleans Saints:
Grade: A-
Favorite pick: Tyler Shough, QB, Louisville
I cannot stress just how much I love the Tyler Shough pick. Not often does a team get the opportunity to throw a QB out there, see if he sinks or swims, and benefit both ways. For the most critical position in football, taking risks like this is not only recommended, but it is quite near necessary for every team that doesn't have the luxury of a franchise quarterback.
New York Giants:
Grade: B-
Favorite pick: Cam Skateboo, RB, Arizona State
Had the Giants stayed put and taken the best available QB at their day two pick, I might have had this as one of my favorite drafts. That being said, I am not a Jaxson Dart fan, and even though the pay to move up was not that large, I still think they could have sat and ended up with him anyway. Or if they had not it would not have been the worst thing in an already crowded QB room for a coaching staff living on the edge. Every other pick before the two 7th-rounders are certified, my guys.
New York Jets:
Grade: B+
Favorite pick: Armand Membou, OT, Mizzou
Are the Jets slowly becoming competent? This is two drafts in a row where they seem to do the smart thing throughout? We truly live in a topsy turvy world currently. Credit where credit is due though, the Jets came to the plate seven times and got on base every single one of those appearances. That flyer on Malachi Moore in the 4th could prove to be very prudent, and Mason Taylor is going to be their second best receiver day one.
Philadelphia Eagles:
Grade: A
Favorite pick: Drew Kendall, C, Boston College
The Eagles have one of the most expensive cores in football, and it is essential for them to draft strongly every year to replace players they cannot afford, like Milton Williams and Josh Sweat. This draft was a great step in that direction. What most do not realize is the Eagles already believe they have potential replacements for the big names on the roster, so this class is about being there for the next class of players out the door, while also grabbing top-end talent to make the team better today.
Pittsburgh Steelers:
Grade: B
Favorite pick: Kaleb Johnson, RB, Iowa
Arthur Smith and Kaleb Johnson are a match made in heaven. Yes, as of today, no QB situation has been figured out, but we all know Aaron Rodgers has nowhere else to go, so the offense should look better. And last I checked, Mike Tomlin still coaches this team, so you know the defensive draft picks are going to find ways to contribute, none more so than Derrick Harmon.
Seattle Seahawks:
Grade: A+
Favorite pick: Jalen Milroe, QB, Alabama
Choosing my favorite pick here was like choosing a favorite child. Grey Zabel, Nick Emmanwori, Elijah Arroyo, Jalen Milroe, Damien Martinez, Tory Horton, and ROBBIE OUZTZ. Just look at this man and tell me he is not the most football ass football player you’ve seen this side of the roughing the passer penalty.
San Francisco 49ers:
Grade: A-
Favorite pick: Nick Martin, LB, Oklahoma State
The 49ers season fell apart last season with injuries, and their inability to keep the opposition out of the endzone. So they decided to take care of that. Mykel Williams is a force off the edge, and Alfred Collins is a massive human being who can plug up the middle. Add in a freakishly athletic Nick Martin at LB, and I think they are definitely on the right track.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
Grade: C
Favorite pick: David Walker, EDGE, Central Arkansas
My favorite part of the Bucs draft is their back-to-back edge selections in the 4th round. David Walker is a generous 6’1”, and Elijah Roberts is 6’4”. They both fill out their jerseys and are massive for their height, and two of the most prolific players in all of college football last year. They are both going to be interesting to see how they handle moving up into the pros. All that to be said, you could have drafted an excellent edge in the first round, but you took Emeka Egbuka, who is really good! But you already have Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Jalen McMillan.
Tennessee Titans:
Grade: A
Favorite pick: Cam Ward, QB, Miami
The Titans got the best player in the draft, Cam Ward, and have finally figured out their franchise QB situation. Add in one of my sneaky favorite 2nd round picks in Oluwafemi Oladejo and a couple of later draft pass catchers to help Ward in Gunnar Helm and Elic Ayomanor, this is the type of draft that can turn a franchise around.
Washington Commanders:
Grade: B+
Favorite pick: Trey Amos, CB, Ole Miss
The Commanders play in a division where each team has a top 10 pass rusher, and a top 10 receiver. How do you slow that down, grab a good physical corner, and a phenomenal offensive lineman. They are only knocked because it was surprising not to see them address their very obvious need at EDGE.
Again, if you like my work, subscribe so you can see more of what I put out soon. Thanks for reading!
