David Bailey Prospect Profile
Background
David Bailey grew up in Orange, California, and attended Mater Dei High School in Santa Ana, the premier football factory on the West Coast. His older brother, DJ, had also played before playing defensive end at Harvard. Bailey led the Monarchs to a perfect 12-0 record and the California Open Division State Championship as a senior, posting 20.5 tackles for loss and 15.5 sacks and sweeping the state, Trinity League, and Orange County Defensive Player of the Year awards. A consensus four-star recruit, chose Stanford over Alabama and Penn State, became an immediate starter as a true freshman, and earned his bachelor's degree in under four years, because sometimes families have it all. He built steadily each season in Palo Alto, finishing his junior year with a PFF pass-rush grade that led every player in the country, then entered the transfer portal when head coach Troy Taylor was fired and signed with Texas Tech on one of the largest NIL deals in college football history. In Lubbock he led the Big 12 in sacks with 14.5, was named a unanimous All-American and Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year, landed third on Bruce Feldman's Freaks List, and declared for the 2026 NFL Draft.
Physical Attributes
As with TEs, the physical profile of EDGEs has some of the highest correlation with success in the league, so we will have RAS numbers on every available prospect. Here is Bailey's:
Bailey is not the biggest EDGE, but he does not need to be. He has one goal, and that is to disrupt plays as fast as possible. His agility is also insane; his ability to work down an offensive line looking for holes can sometimes look like teleportation. He might not check every box, but the ones he does, he does so phenomenally.
Data and Tape Analysis
If you are unfamiliar with my EDGE radar charts, you can find more information here
That's a mighty fine radar chart there. On the right-hand side, you will notice almost no space between the outer bounds and Bailey's stats; that is because he is a freakish pass rusher. On the left you will see more daylight; that is because he is a good run defender. Let's dig into that.
As a run defender, Bailey can get a touch over-excited. He has good play recognition, which helps stop him from screaming into the backfield every play, but can struggle a bit working towards the ball carrier. His slight lack of size make life difficult for him in more contested areas. Before I move onto his pass rush too, that is one of his biggest weaknesses. When two blockers engage him, it looks like he has no plan on how to deal with them. Most defenders struggle at this, but for someone who is looking to be a top pick in the draft, you would hope for a little better.
I tried to think of a funny joke here to say David Bailey has a ton of moves in his arsenal. Queen on the chessboard, a military brat, Michael Jackson, etc. You get the idea; Bailey has a ton of ways to win a pass rush rep. His most common is an outside speed move where he either leverages his arm or bends low to get around a tackle. At one point I think I saw his ankle and foot firmly planted with all cleats in the ground, and the rest of his lower leg bending at something like 80 degrees to the ground. Incredible ankle flexion that lets him keep all his power and speed at any direction.
Bailey also has some less straightforward and less used skills. He has a spin move that catches lineman off guard and stuck in place once he uses that lead arm as a hook around them. Then there is the euro step, where he looks like he is about to set up for one of his other moves then sidesteps the lineman trying to block him. The power move where he walks a OT into his QBs lap, a ghost move, a win off the line of scrimmage, he has it all. Not only can he do all of those, but he does them really well, and without ever giving a tell. It must be hell to be lined up on the other side of him because you never know what is coming.
It is not all rosy in the pass rush, though. In his game against Utah, he struggled against Spencer Fano and Caleb Lomu. It almost looks like they perform judo on Bailey, using his own energy against him. They invited him into their chest and essentially said, now that you are close, you cannot escape. I do not think this is a deal breaker, but it is something to be aware of.
Grade and Outlook
If the most important position on the field is the QB, then the most important thing to do on defense is to make that QBs life hell. David Bailey seems to only ever think about how he can accomplish that goal. Against some of the better tackles in the league, I think he will struggle early in his career, but against anything middle of the pack or lower, he will feast from day one.
Grade: 6.7 (1st Rounder)